How Viral Potential Scoring Works: Find Reddit Posts Before They Blow Up

Why Timing Is Everything on Reddit

On Reddit, the first few hours of a post's life determine everything. Comments made during this window get upvoted alongside the post. Comments made after the post peaks get buried.

Think about it: a post that reaches the front page of a subreddit might get 10,000 views. But by the time it's there, it already has 200 comments. Your reply is lost in the noise. The top comments were written when the post had 50 upvotes, not 5,000.

Viral potential scoring identifies posts before they blow up. It spots the momentum early, giving you time to craft a thoughtful reply while there's still room at the top.

The 4 Factors Behind Viral Potential Scoring

Reddit Radar's viral potential score (0-100) combines four key signals to predict which posts are worth your attention.

Factor 1: Upvote Velocity

Raw upvote count doesn't tell the whole story. A post with 100 upvotes after 24 hours is performing very differently than a post with 100 upvotes after 2 hours.

Upvote velocity measures how fast a post is gaining traction. We calculate upvotes-per-hour and compare it to the subreddit's baseline. A post gaining upvotes 3x faster than average in that community is showing strong momentum.

High velocity (50+ upvotes/hour in an active subreddit) suggests the post is being promoted by Reddit's algorithm to a wider audience.

Factor 2: Post Timing

There's a sweet spot for engagement. Too new and the post might not take off. Too old and your comment gets buried.

The ideal window:

• 0-1 hour: Risky. Post might not gain traction.
• 1-3 hours: Optimal. Momentum visible, low competition.
• 3-6 hours: Still good if post is still rising.
• 6-12 hours: Marginal. Only engage if score is very high.
• 12+ hours: Too late. Most engagement window has passed.

The scoring algorithm weighs post age heavily. A moderately performing 2-hour-old post often scores higher than a high-performing 8-hour-old post.

Factor 3: Comment Competition

The number of existing comments affects your visibility. Reddit's default sorting favors early comments that gain initial upvotes. More existing comments means more competition for those top spots.

Comment count thresholds:

• 0-10 comments: Low competition. High visibility potential.
• 10-50 comments: Moderate competition. Still viable.
• 50-100 comments: High competition. Need an exceptional reply.
• 100+ comments: Very high competition. Usually not worth it.

A post with 50 upvotes and 5 comments is often a better opportunity than a post with 500 upvotes and 200 comments.

Factor 4: Source Momentum

The subreddit itself matters. Active communities with high daily post volume have more competition but also more potential reach. Smaller communities are easier to stand out in but have limited upside.

We also look at cross-posting signals. When a post starts gaining traction across multiple subreddits, it's often about to explode.

Finally, the post type matters. Question posts (people asking for help) typically have better engagement windows than news or link posts.

Understanding Priority Tiers

Reddit Radar converts the 0-100 score into actionable priority tiers:

URGENT (80-100 score, less than 2 hours old)

Drop what you're doing. These posts show exceptional momentum and have a short window. High upvote velocity, low comment count, optimal timing. These opportunities don't come often.

HIGH (65-79 score)

Strong opportunities worth engaging with today. Good momentum and reasonable timing. Prioritize these after clearing any URGENT posts.

NORMAL (40-64 score)

Decent opportunities. Worth engaging if you have time and a genuinely helpful response. Don't force it if the fit isn't perfect.

LOW (below 40 score)

Usually not worth the effort. Either the timing has passed, competition is too high, or momentum isn't there. Focus your energy elsewhere.

Real-World Scoring Examples

Let's look at how the scoring works with concrete examples:

Example 1: URGENT Opportunity

Post: "What tool do you use for customer feedback?"
Subreddit: r/startups (750k members)
Age: 1.5 hours
Upvotes: 47 (31/hour velocity)
Comments: 8
Score: 87/100 - URGENT

Why it scores high: Excellent velocity, optimal timing window, very low competition, high-intent question in an active community.

Example 2: NORMAL Opportunity

Post: "Looking for project management recommendations"
Subreddit: r/smallbusiness (1.2M members)
Age: 5 hours
Upvotes: 89 (18/hour velocity)
Comments: 34
Score: 52/100 - NORMAL

Why it scores normal: Good velocity but timing window is narrowing, moderate competition. Still worth engaging if you have a genuinely helpful answer.

Example 3: LOW Opportunity

Post: "Best CRM for freelancers?"
Subreddit: r/freelance (500k members)
Age: 14 hours
Upvotes: 156 (11/hour velocity)
Comments: 127
Score: 28/100 - LOW

Why it scores low: Post has already peaked, very high comment competition. Your reply would be buried under 100+ existing comments.

How to Use Viral Scoring in Your Strategy

Viral potential scoring is a tool, not a complete strategy. Here's how to integrate it into your Reddit marketing workflow:

1. Check daily (ideally twice): Morning and afternoon scans catch different posting cycles.
2. Prioritize URGENT first: These have short windows. Address them before anything else.
3. Don't force bad fits: A high score doesn't mean you should engage. Only reply when you have something genuinely helpful to say.
4. Track what works: Over time, you'll learn which score ranges perform best for your specific product and communities.

Remember: scoring identifies potential. The quality of your reply still determines the outcome. For help writing authentic replies, see our guide on AI-generated Reddit replies that sound human.

Beyond Scoring: The Complete System

Viral potential scoring is one piece of a larger system. For sustainable Reddit marketing, you also need:

• Community discovery to find the right subreddits
• Health score tracking to maintain the right warmup-to-plug ratio
• Reply generation to draft authentic-sounding responses

Learn how all these pieces fit together in our complete guide to Reddit marketing.